Aluminum foil volume and price rise Sodium batteries open up new space in the industry

　"This year, the company's battery aluminum foil orders have grown steadily, and the supply of products is in short supply. In July, there were many temporary orders from customers, and the total order volume reached more than 11,000 tons. Due to the lack of time to adjust the production line, the total shipment of battery aluminum foil was 9,500 tons by the end of July, and the unfinished ones could only be postponed to next month. Recently, Chen Weixin, secretary of Dingsheng New Material (603876), told reporters that since August, customer orders for battery aluminum foil have further increased, reaching 13,000 tons.

Aluminum foil is an aluminum rolled material with a thickness of less than 0.2 mm. Battery aluminum foil refers to the lithium battery cathode current collector aluminum foil, which is both a current collector electrode and a carrier of lithium battery cathode material. In recent years, battery aluminum foil has become the fastest growing segment of foil products. Huang Wei, deputy general manager and secretary of Wanshun New Material (300057), said that since the second half of last year, the market demand for battery aluminum foil has grown rapidly, and the market has shown a situation of short supply.

Chen Weixin said that the current battery aluminum foil market has changed from a tight balance in the first quarter to a tight state. Many institutions believe that the supply of battery aluminum foil is in short supply, which will continue to promote the rise in processing fees. In the future, the production capacity and shipments of major leading enterprises will further increase, and the scale effect will bring about an increase in the profitability of the industry. The sodium-ion battery that will be put into commercial use will bring new demand growth points for battery aluminum foil. The agency expects that the global demand for battery aluminum foil will reach 740,000 tons in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 37%.

Battery aluminum foil processing fees continue to rise

The pricing of domestic aluminum foil products usually adopts the model of "aluminum price + processing fee". Among them, the processing fee is generally determined by regular discussions between buyers and sellers, which is the core factor for the profitability of aluminum foil manufacturers. The rising and falling trend of processing fees can directly reflect the prosperity of the industry and the supply and demand of the market.

According to industry insiders, since the second half of last year, the processing fee level of battery aluminum foil has risen by 2,000 yuan / ton to 4,000 yuan / ton. Last year, the average processing fee of battery aluminum foil was about 15,000 yuan / ton. In the second half of last year, the demand for battery aluminum foil market grew rapidly, and the average processing fee level of many leading enterprises in the fourth quarter was raised to more than 16,000 yuan / ton. In the first quarter of this year, market supply and demand tended to be tightly balanced, and the processing fee of some enterprises rose to 17,000 yuan / ton.

According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Network statistics, as of the end of July, the processing fee of 15-micron lithium battery aluminum foil was 18,000 yuan / ton, while the processing fee of 12 micron reached 20,000 yuan / ton. Qu Jianhui, senior analyst of Shanghai nonferrous network aluminum foil, said that there is still room for growth in battery aluminum foil processing fees in the future. At present, the production costs of labor and power are increasing, and it is difficult for the yield of short-term battery aluminum foil to rise significantly, and the cost of scrap still occupies the lion's share. In addition, strong downstream demand is the biggest driver of higher processing fees.

In the eyes of the industry, the root cause of the surge in demand for battery aluminum foil is the mismatch between supply and demand. On the one hand, the production and sales of terminal new energy vehicles and the installed capacity of power batteries have grown rapidly; On the other hand, battery aluminum foil products have a certain commercialization cycle and technical threshold, and the production line construction and production speed are slow; For newcomers, R&D, certification, yield, etc. are all difficulties that need to be overcome.

Huang Wei said that there is a certain cycle of battery aluminum foil capacity expansion, which takes about 3 to 5 years. First of all, it takes at least 2 years to build new production capacity, and more than 3 years for new entrants and process exploration. Secondly, the products put into production also need downstream battery factories for trial and certification, and the certification cycle is about half a year to about 1 year.

Listed companies have expanded the production of battery aluminum foil

Benefiting from the rise in processing fees and the continuous increase in production capacity, in the first half of this year, the profitability of listed companies in the battery aluminum foil industry increased significantly.

Dingsheng New Material is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent of 510 million yuan to 610 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 235.40% to 301.16%. The company said that the downstream demand for power battery aluminum foil continues to be strong, and the company continues to accelerate the conversion of traditional production lines to power battery aluminum foil, and the production and sales volume have increased significantly year-on-year, further consolidating the company's market share. In addition, the downstream market demand for traditional packaging aluminum foil is still strong.

Wanshun New Material is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent of 115 million yuan to 125 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 531.54% to 586.45%. The company said that benefiting from the strong demand in the downstream market of aluminum foil, coupled with the release of capacity of Sun Company's Anhui Zhongji Phase I annual output of 40,000 tons of high-precision electronic aluminum foil production project, the profitability of the company's aluminum processing business has increased significantly.

In addition, listed companies such as East Sunshine (600673) and Mingtai Aluminum (601677) achieved performance growth in the first half of the year.

The reporter learned that in the future, leading enterprises will further accelerate the investment and release of production capacity. With the general increase in shipments, scale effects may bring about a significant increase in the profitability of the industry.

Chen Weixin said that it is expected that Dingsheng New Materials will ship 120,000 tons of battery aluminum foil in 2022. In terms of production capacity, it is expected that the annual production capacity of battery aluminum foil will reach 150,000 tons in the fourth quarter.

In addition to the continuous increase in shipments, Dingsheng New Materials will further increase production capacity. The company recently issued an announcement that it plans to raise no more than 2.7 billion yuan, and the net funds raised after deducting the issuance expenses will be used for the annual output of 800,000 tons of battery foil and supporting billet projects, and supplementary working capital projects. Guojin Securities believes that after the completion of this project, it is expected to add 600,000 tons of billet production capacity and 200,000 tons of finished battery foil production capacity.

Huang Wei said that Wanshun New Material Anhui Zhongji production base is mainly based on battery aluminum foil, the first phase of the 72,000-ton high-precision electronic aluminum foil production project under construction The 40,000-ton project began to be put into operation at the end of last year, and the second phase of the 32,000-ton project was launched at the end of last year, and it is planned to be put into operation next year. In addition, the company is preparing to build an annual output of 100,000 tons of power and energy storage battery foil project in Anhui Zhongji, which will form a total production capacity of 255,000 tons of aluminum foil after the completion of the project.

Yirui New Material's project with an annual output of 700,000 tons of green new aluminum alloy materials under Mingtai Aluminum, including power battery materials, battery aluminum foil blanks and other subdivided products. The relevant person in charge of Mingtai Aluminum said that this project is progressing smoothly and will contribute about 50,000 tons of finished production capacity this year.

Tianshan Aluminum (002532) said on the investor interactive platform on July 27 that according to the development strategy, the company entered the field of battery aluminum foil, laid out the first phase of 200,000 tons of power battery foil production line project in Jiangyin, Jiangsu, and laid out 300,000 tons of aluminum foil blank project in Shihezi, Xinjiang, the products will be mainly used in lithium battery positive current collector and sodium battery positive and negative electrode.

Sodium-ion batteries have become a fresh air outlet for aluminum foil

At present, the large-scale production of sodium-ion batteries is gradually approaching. The industry generally believes that with the formal commercialization of sodium-ion batteries, the demand space for battery aluminum foil will be further expanded.

Different from lithium-ion batteries, because sodium and aluminum are not easy to alloy reactions, in sodium-ion batteries, aluminum foil can be used instead of copper foil for the positive and negative current collectors, reducing the cost by nearly 70%. This means that sodium-ion batteries will bring new demand growth points for aluminum foil.

Chen Weixin said that according to the 1 GWh lithium-ion battery, the demand for aluminum foil is 330 tons to 350 tons. In the future, compared with lithium-ion batteries, the amount of aluminum foil used in sodium-ion batteries will at least double, and the corresponding demand for aluminum foil per GWh will be 600 tons to 700 tons.

According to EVTank estimates, in the case of 100% penetration of sodium-ion batteries, the market space in 2026 can reach 369.5 GWh. Considering that the amount of battery aluminum foil used in sodium-ion batteries is about 800 tons/GWh, the amount of battery aluminum foil will reach 295,600 tons in 2025.

Zheshang Securities (601878) believes that the situation of short supply of battery aluminum foil will continue until at least 2023. From 2022 to 2023, the overall supply and demand of battery foil will remain in tight balance. Global battery foil production is expected to reach 320,000 tons in 2022 and 483,000 tons in 2023. On the demand side, 331,000 tons in 2022 and 488,000 tons in 2023, respectively. Therefore, there will be a demand gap of 11,500 tons in 2022 and 04,800 tons in 2023, basically maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand. Until after 2024, the supply of battery aluminum foil will increase, and the current tight supply and demand pattern can be eased.

Battery aluminum foil is also a major development trend. At present, the thickness of mainstream power battery aluminum foil is about 12 microns to 15 microns. Chen Weixin said that the trend of battery aluminum foil is light and thin, considering its elongation, high tensile resistance and other properties, and the technical requirements are high. The company actively promotes the technical reserve of aluminum foil thinning, in the field of power batteries, the company's 12-micron aluminum foil products have leading performance, and the company is the only manufacturer in China to achieve mass production of 10-micron aluminum foil. In the field of digital consumer batteries, the company is the only manufacturer in China to achieve mass production of 9 micron and 8 micron aluminum foil.

Huang Wei said that in the future, the industry will steadily promote the thinness of battery aluminum foil under the premise of ensuring safety performance.